What is the True Rate of Social Mobility ? Surnames and Social Mobility , England , 1800 - 2012

Using rare surnames we follow the socio-economic status of initial groups of rich, middling, and poor in England from 1800 until 2012. We measure social status through wealth, education, occupation, membership in political elites, and average age at death. Our method allows unbiased estimates of mobility rates. Mobility rates are much lower than conventionally estimated, including the most recent generations. There is considerable persistence of status, even after 200 years. Surprisingly the arrival of universal publicly funded education, and universal suffrage, does not improve mobility. Finally we show why mobility rates measured in using surnames provide better estimates of long run and generalized social mobility than conventional estimates.